Weather Service

- Seasonal Weather Forecast Development

An in-house empirical model is under development that can simulate several components of the seasonal weather system for regions of the United Kingdom. The weather forecast system is fed with information from a blocking high index system. The index characterises different high pressure blocking patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean basin based on the jet stream position and intensity, the planetary wave amplitude in the vicinity of the British Isles, and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. The forecast outputs draw analogues with climate predictions, since the model predicts a likelihood weather scenario without isolating specific weather events.

The forecast system provides a computationally tireless and innovative process to predict how the North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and positioning of the jet-stream play a role in the general long-range weather conditions of the British Isles. A user defined version of the model is now under development in Python that will be developed into an e-learning and decision making tool. A screenshot of the seasonal forecast model output screenshot is shown below.

Seasonal forecast - Storm, precipitation, rainfall, heating degree days

Seasonal forecast for the UK

As the project manager, based in Nottingham, I have over ten years of experience in Meteorology. I also hold a doctorate in quantitative Earth Observation from the University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences.

High Pressures and Impact on UK Climate

Blocking High Pressures and their Impact on UK Climate During Winter

Initial model testing indicated some skill at long scale predictions of the weather – with wet/mild and cold/dry signals related to blocking high pressure systems. Further testing is now being conducted in conjunction with the University of Leicester using a combination of atmospheric, land and ocean surface data from a range of open sourced satellite data.

Objectives

To improve the public understanding of Climate Science to provide rapid stakeholder attribution diagnostics for extreme weather events. The seasonal forecast model will therefore provide an automated description of the key drivers of extreme weather patterns (flooding, drought etc.) on monthly to seasonal time-scales.

Deliverables

(1) Open datasets containing forecast output data run from 1962 to 2013 (51 years) and the predictor inputs during the same period; (2) a user-defined seasonal weather forecast attribution system in the form of a web / mobile application.

Contact

Dr Christopher Nankervis

Mobile. 07949187732 – forecasts@weatherlogistics.com

Regional-seasonal forecasts for United Kingdom

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*Twitter @ cjnankervis

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