How do I use Climate-Smart Crop?
Are your forecasts valid?
Yes – based on our expert assessment using 7 years of direct comparisons between our forecasts and uk weather station observations. Our winter forecasts prove most accurate, unparallelled by other weather & climate providers. Furthermore, we offer additional benefits for seasonal crop protection / energy demand planning.
We have built close relationships with industrial and academic experts in the field; with meteorology links with the University of Reading, University of Manchester and University of Leicester. Our forecasts are also well calibrated with observations, to provide the best possible analyses of local climate. Finally, we provide farm-field level detail and insights into weather variability within each season, a unique feature not available from other suppliers. We have summarised our early verification results.
How do our forecasts compare to observations?
What is unique about our seasonal forecasts?
Weather Logistics exploits billions of satellite-derived historical measurements to forecast the UK climate several months in advance – challenging horizon times. We also provide details on the daily weather extremes within these 0.5 – 3.5 month (2 to 15 week) seasons. Our forecast system scales predictions to a 5km² grid, much finer than other providers. This is achieved by a hybrid system that combines historical statistics with external forecast data. Forecast products focus on agricultural risk, describing the relative likelihood of extreme weather events and climate types that impact monthly operations.
Our company vision is to address agricultural problems to reduce the impacts of global food shocks, maintaining global stability and reducing environmental impacts.
Are fine-scale predictions needed in agriculture?
Weather Logistics’ seasonal climate products are on a much finer spatial resolution – adding greater value for agricultural decision making on a farm-field level.
In agriculture, spatial variability in soil and environment means that crop decisions are made at the farm-field level such as: choices of crop variety, preventing winter damage and securing winter feed, ensuring vernilization / cold hardiness, preventing frost damage to tender crops and vegetables, variable rate of fertiliser application, timing of harvest and preventative disease programmes.
Crop types grown in different parts of the field depend upon the soil types (geology) and moisture – and we are working closely with academic partners to integrate high resolution agri-metrics into our forecasts to meet this requirement.
What is a seasonal climate forecast?
Seasonal forecasts describe the average surface conditions that you are likely to experience in the outdoors over the next few months. Our climate forecasts also inform customers about the likelihood of prolonged extreme weather and near-variability in climate through detailed analysis of many billions of historical measurements.
Who needs a seasonal forecast?
Most businesses and public stakeholders can benefit from seasonal climate forecasts, to make better decisions about their future practice. For example, it is essential for industry to mitigate / insure against extremes UK flooding and windstorms. Our tailored seasonal forecasts inform growers, for sustainable food production and supply, as our social values are focussed on management of agricultural risks for all affected.
How accurate are our seasonal forecasts?
Our climate forecasts perform best in the winter season – with an overall success rate of over 79% for winter temperature. Our latest risk maps offer improved predictability than version 2 (72% accuracy), since we now combine many seasonal forecasts from international weather centres including the UK Met Office, ECMWF and MeteoFrance.
We are working toward a tailored forecast system that will provide accurate forecasts even closer to the farm field.
Are your seasonal forecasts reliable?
On a UK-wide scale, temperature forecasts correctly predicted whether the past 6 winters were above or below average – including the cold winters of 2010 and 2011. Our data analytics has established strong links between weather and climate data and the UK climate. This has allowed us to downscale broad scale predictions to local areas of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
We have tested our statistical model using over 50 years of past climate measurements, including open data from the international weather centres.
How should I interpret a seasonal forecast?
Forecasts should be assessed on a seasonal climate basis in a probabilistic fashion. Our predictions do not predict specific weather events in a season, but do inform you about the odds, return period, or likely days of a specific type of weather event occurring compared to the climate norm.
Can I trust Weather Logistics Ltd?
Weather Logistics has worked with many academics in fields of applied mathematics, data science, meteorology and earth observation. Our work is presented at conferences and workshops to agricultural experts and we provide open climate data for external analysis. Initial forecast verification conducted by the University of Leicester and was published. Recent verification results are presented and winter temperature forecasts for 2016 are publicly available.