Weather Logistics Ltd was established in April 2014. The company operates as an independent professional research and development enterprise. As the project manager I am responsible for the development of the software to generate weather forecast outputs to the end-user. An in-house computer model is used to simulate several components of the weather system out to 100 days from present for 8 regions of the United Kingdom. As the project manager, based in Nottingham, I have many years of academic experience in the field of weather, climate and ocean science and computer modelling using various different types of satellite data to doctorate level. My main focus is in longer-term weather outlooks from 14 days out to monthly time scales.
The methods used by Weather Logistics Ltd are unique, applying both holistic and statistical techniques. The seasonal weather forecast product is the only known to present data to such a high resolution. For information on how this is achieved, please view an overview of my seasonal weather forecast methods. Weather Logistics Ltd focuses on longer-term weather outlooks from monthly to seasonal time scales. Weather Logistics Ltd offers seasonal forecasts with confidence, whereas a limited set of companies offer these forecasts and are unreliable. The unique selling point of the products offered is the ability to produce useful regional-seasonal forecasts. With lead times of over 100 days, this kind of resolution is not delivered by any other company. The model outputs are also statistical in nature, so that a risk assessment can be conducted my consumers to estimate the "likelihood" of different weather types. The use of probabilistic forecasts is much more valuable to the consumer.
To improve the quality of forecasts made at Weather Logistics Ltd, the micro-model is continually under review and development. The version 3 product demonstrates some clear skill at long scale predictions of the weather. The services provided tie several important links between seasonal forecasts and climate change predictions.
Biography - Project Manager & Head Forecaster
Dr Nankervis became a qualified Meteorologist in 2005, with a 2.1 honours degree from the highly prized University of Reading department. Embarking on postgraduate studies at the University of Edinburgh in 2005, he has developed specialist experience in the field of Earth Observation and general working knowledge in the physical sciences. His studies involved reading and analysing remotely sensed satellite data from NASA, the ECMWF and NOAA - the principal inputs used for weather prediction. In November 2011, the seasonal forecast code and methods were disseminated to the public.
In August 2010, his expertise and aptitude for solving problems led him to the world of business. With strong entrepreneurial skills, he embarked on a venture selling seasonal weather predictions to customers in the UK and Ireland. With a low start-up budget, he began to think much more creatively. He designed a basic framework to describe the long-term weather patterns experienced in Britain, based on a holistic method that is used in systems science.
With attention to detail, and a keen interest in analysing global forecast system outputs, he noticed a distinct rise in the frequency of blocking patterns. These high pressure systems appeared to govern the extremes of seasonal temperature and rainfall. Blocking high pressures "prefer", or at least have a tendency, to remain in certain positions for prolonged periods of time. Based upon this concept, a model was constructed to simulate the impact of blocking patterns of various sizes and locations on the long term patterns in the upper air stream. In combination with sea surface temperature data and monthly jet-stream climatologies, he was able to produce realistic forecasts of temperature, rainfall, storminess, air flow direction and energy demand. Furthermore, his modelling was reported on a regional space-scale.
Weather forecasts were first sold (through a sole-trading enterprise) in August 2010 to businesses in the retail, leisure, agricultural and tourism sectors. With a strong green-fingered policy, the company promoted climate science and its similarities to seasonal weather predictions. This was achieved by the use of probabilistic outputs, expressing the likelihood of different weather events or temperatures exceeding critical boundary conditions. The seasonal weather predictions have proved particularly successful for energy demand forecasting.
Weather Logistics Ltd provides heating degree day forecasts, to enable customers to predict their summer or winter fuel bills (gas or oil), either at home or in the work-place. We are also in the stage of developing a bad driving weather application for satellite navigation devices.
Business Forecast Services from Weather Logistics Ltd
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Dr Christopher Nankervis BSc (Hons) Met – Project manager & Sole trader
WeatherLogistics.Com - Mobile Phone: 07949187732
Weather Logistics Ltd is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 8991411. Registered Office: 64 Springfield Avenue, Sandiacre, Nottingham, Derbyshire, NG10 5LZ.