About Weather Logistics UK . . .

Weather Logistics UK is a professional weather forecasting enterprise, which produces longer range weather predictions for several regions within the British Isles. To achieve this, an in-house computer model has been developed to simulate several components of the weather system a season in advance. We hope to expand our market to European countries within the next few years

View our Seasonal Weather Prediction Code

  How does Weather Logistics UK produce its seasonal weather forecasts?

Seasonal forecasts are generated for the Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter periods and cover 9 regions of the UK and Ireland. They are produced up to 100 days in advance using a simple, yet powerful, computer model that simulates the upper air flow (jet streams) in the atmosphere above the north Atlantic Ocean. The computer simulation is based on the interaction between the average jet stream positions and resident high pressure systems that act to divert the upper air flow. At the surface, the track of low pressures systems are directed by the upper air flow in the model simulation. Blocking highs are inputted over the North Atlantic at various positions and of different intensity and the relative likelihoods of each set of weather conditions are expressed by a (coding) scheme.

Atlantic jet streams are deflected around blocking highs ...

The properties of the air reaching us from the Atlantic reflects the current or predicted state of the ocean back-tracked along a path extending into the North Atlantic Ocean. The forecast therefore depends upon the season in question and the character of the atmosphere predicted by the forecaster. The product includes predictions temperature, precipitation, air flow trajectories and other seasonal derivatives that include: heating demand for utility bills (autumn and winter), snow day forecasts (winter), heat wave predictions (summer) and air conditioning demand (summer).

The model has been generated in a computer programming language known as GDL, incorporating satellite data from various sources to simulate an ensemble of predicted air flow trajectories. It is continuously under review and subjected to validation. So far it has proved successful at predicting both cool and wet weather for autumn 2011 and also the cold and dry winter of 2011.

The methods used by Weather Logistics UK are unique, applying both holistic and statistical techniques. The seasonal weather forecast product is the only known to present data to such a high resolution. For information on how this is achieved, please view an overview of my seasonal weather forecast methods.

To improve the quality of forecasts made at Weather Logistics UK, the micro-model is continually under review and development. The version 3 product demonstrates some clear skill at long scale predictions of the weather. The services provided tie several important links between seasonal forecasts and climate change predictions.

Christopher Nankervis BSc (Hons) Met [Who am I?]
Project manager & sole trader @ www.weatherlogistics.com
Business contact: +447949187732 OR forecasts@weatherlogistics.com
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  Google Widget - How the seasonal forecast product works ...

Interactive schematic of the model used at Weather Logistics UK to generate seasonal weather forecasts. Please click on an object or marker on the map to reveal information bubbles, or use the zoom tool to discover more information about the long term weather outlook. The version 3 weather forecast product was produced for winter 2010/2011 and demonstrated clear success when validated against UK Met Office data. It predicted below average temperatures and precipitation for all the UK regions. The results are consistent with knowledge of a strong blocking pattern (with a maximum index of 10 on our scale).