Heating Demand: Winter Outlook

Weather Logistics provides both local and long-term (seasonal) energy demand predictions. Our insights are further enhanced by the inclusion of subseasonal temperature variability – enabling clients to estimate the risk of short-term demand spike ‘triads’ during each month of the upcoming season. Our vision is to provide seasonal outlooks for future smart-grid management, and commercial and industrial energy clients.

Glasgow, UK - Winter Outlook for 2017 heating demand

Energy Triads - National GridConsecutive 7 day events: UK govenment coldweather payments

Tackling the 2.4 million UK households in fuel poverty will also prove challenging. Our advisories of cold weather will prove valuable for preparation and marketing programs run by homelessness charities.

Our energy forecasts provide operators of long term (e.g. battery) storage or decentralised heating systems affordable data solutions. This can assist energy operators on how best to ensure security of supply, with 71% of winter outlooks within ±1°C of observations. We can also provide software and consultancy services to assist in demand-side-response for energy firms, with the goal to lower consumer energy costs.

The winter outlook for 2016-17 indicates a high potential of severe energy demand peaks (1st December to 28th February 2017). For the season as a whole, we are 85% confident that UK wide temperatures will not exceed 1°C above a 30 year climatology from 1961 – 1990. Domestic demand is likely to be up +18% compared to post-2010 winters, adversely impacting social well-being and health.

Further information is available on request.

e. forecasts@weatherlogistics.com
t. +44(0)115 8232744