Flood & Drought Forecasting
Our climate is getting wetter, with rainfall intensity increases of approximately 11% compared to the 1961 – 1990 climatology. When rain falls, it is generally heavier. Rainfall patterns are also changing, with showery weather types and atmospheric ‘blocking’ events become more frequent. Altered global circulation, ocean-land temperature contrasts, retreating Arctic ice sheets and altered upper-level ‘jet stream’ winds are likely causes.
Summer drought risks are also increasing, particularly in the southern portion of the UK, as the Mediterranean subtropical high migrates gradually northward.
Climate-Smart Crop presents a dynamic way to explore detailed UK rainfall climatologies on a 5km x 5km spatial grid. These charts were prepared as a part NERC funded project in collaboration with University College London (UCL) and Standard & Poor’s catastrophe risk modelling team.
Our maps indicate the local extremes of rainfall accumulations in each season for return periods of 1 in 10, 1 in 3, 2 in 3 year flooding events, recognising that flood damage is often not widespread. Our outputs also provide UK-wide rainfall return periods, suitable for management of utility and water supply.
Please feel free to contact me to discuss consultancy offerings for flood and drought modelling, including bespoke software development.
chris (at) weatherlogistics.com
t. +44(0)115 8232744