Validity

Seasonal climate forecasts – attribution

Below: How our unique climate downscaling system performs

Caption

Chart shows the average (black) and 90% confidence range (grey lines) of temperature predictions. Observations in colour, where blue is cooler and red milder than average

Verified by specialists at the University of Leicester

Key Points

  • Many, if not all, extreme seasons above or below a 2.0°C tipping point threshold (1 in 25 event likelihood) are well predicted in Northeast England

  • At present, around half of extreme seasonal warmth is due to natural variability, the remainder results from UK climate change. Extreme cold events (as defined in Figure 1) are more common than extreme warm events

  • Extreme cold of winters 1963 & 2010 were largely influenced by extended duration of atmospheric blocking / unusual jetstream activity (continental airstream)

  • Mild UK temperatures (+0.5°C to +1.0°C above long-term average), in the decade from 1998 to 2008, were largely a result of anomalously mild North Atlantic sea temperatures

  • Widespread snow and subsequent flooding during autumn 1994 was largely attributed to notable cold over Atlantic Ocean surface

  • Jetstream blocking in Spring 1989, contributed significantly to exceptionally mild (tropical maritime) conditions. Summer 2006 extreme heat was largely attributed to mild Atlantic

  • 1960s record, early in the series, is not as well modelled. This is likely due to poorer observations during this period

Predictions of extreme weather

We’ve tested our model with weather and climate data collected at other UK regions too. One of our recent extreme winters caused havoc for the agricultural sector: the extreme cold winter of 2010. During this season, our long-range forecast system demonstrated predictive skill for local representation of climate variability and widespread cold

Management of climate risks

Our seasonal outlooks and localised long-range weather predictions provide early warning to mitigate climate impacts

Please get in touch …

CEO & Scientific Director

Weather Logistics Ltd

e: forecasts (at) weatherlogistics.com